Before the highly anticipated UFC 272 next Saturday coinciding with the 10th annual UFC International Fight Week we have a 12 match UFC Fight Night.
Live from the Apex in Las Vegas we have a 12 fight UFC DFS slate on tap!
Happy Friday everybody! Welcome back to another UFC DFS preview brought to you by yours truly. While Caveman will be back next week bringing you guys the goods, I’m here to dive into the 12 fight slate we have tomorrow night and provide you with some valuable tidbits to consider when building your lineups before lock at 7pm, Saturday night!
Underdog to consider: Rodolfo Vieira $ 7,600 – If you’re not going to roster Vieira and opt for Chris Curtis I totally respect that, just as long as you target this fight in your lineup. Sorry if that’s somewhat of a copout with my preface there, more to follow below. The case for Vieira is simple. This fight is not ending in a decision. Vieira being close to a coin flip on the moneyline while carrying a price tag of $ 7,600 in a fight that is almost 90% to not go to a decision makes him extremely intriguing when it comes to tournament builds. Keep in mind outside of the main even that he is the most popular underdog in terms of ownership solely because the chances for things to break his way are just exponentially higher than the fighters in his salary range when you consider the inside the distance prop line and moneyline numbers.
Favorite to consider: Jinh Yu Frey $ 9,200 – When you’re building your lineups and you are struggling or you’re looking for a way to get different? Look no further than Jinh Yu Frey. A 9k fighter who’s ownership is less than her 7k opponent. That’s all you need to know. Based off of lineup construction and where the field is going in terms of fighter selection it makes sense that Jinh Yu Frey is overlooked. What doesn’t make sense is a 9k fighter being owned less than her opponent. This could be a slate breaker as the sole women’s fight on the card I am looking forward to jamming in Frey across my lineups!
Lineup construction to consider: I would roster at most 1 of the following fighters Arman Tsarukyan $ 9,100, Umar Nurmagomedov $ 9,500 and Shavkat Rakhmonov $ 9,300. These are the top 3 owned fighters on the slate for good reason. They all are very large favorites to win their respective bouts while carrying the highest median projections. The problem is construction. First off if you want to jam all 3 in your lineup and think you are getting 3 easy wins, great you may be right. But the there are only so many combinations of fighters that you can place within a lineup when you are not stacking a fight. I’d say every lineup possible with these 3 fighters will be duped multiple times, cutting into your EV. Just by simply pick one of them and rotating in midrange plays gives you a better chance to be different from the field.
The other nugget I would consider while building lineups is I would include Chris Curtis or Rodolfo Viera in my lineup. This fight carries a “Will the Fight go the Distance” prop line of -750, equating to an 88.2% chance that one of these fighters is finishing their opponent. The earlier the finish, the more points accumulated in terms of a win bonus. For this reason alone I recommend being overweight to the field on at least one if not both throughout your lineups.
That will do it! If anybody wants to chop it up about the slate tomorrow or has any questions check out the MMA Channel in the FantasyCruncher Discord